'Little' Best Picture?
Could it happen?
Winners from tonight's 13th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards:
Best Ensemble: "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Take Five: A Look at Sunday's SAG Awards
Sunday night's Screen Actors Guild Awards could be a dress rehearsal for Oscar night in four weeks. Nineteen of the twenty Oscar nominees for acting are represented at the SAG Awards, and so are three of the five Oscar Picture nominees in the SAG Ensemble category.
This is where "Crash" began its ascent to Oscar glory last year, will another picture do the same this year? Let's take a look.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
Not too many supporting actress honors have passed over Jennifer Hudson's work in "Dreamgirls" this year, and I wouldn't expect that to change for the rest of the year.
However, -- and there is always that however, that slight chance -- if the Screen Actors Guild wants to buck the trend, they will do so by awarding 10-year-old Abigail Breslin. It's quite clear that "Little Miss Sunshine" has captured the hearts of many in Movieland, and the Screen Actors Guild has a past of appreciating the work of child actors. That being said, it's an uphill climb -- but, it's a climb that isn't impossible.
Predicted Winner: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Alternate: Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Again, we have a category with a clear frontrunner from "Dreamgirls," who could lose to a legitimate "Little Miss Sunshine" threat. However, in this case, the margin of separation between the two isn't nearly as distant as the other category. Eddie Murphy has been on a roll lately, but will the guild defer the chance to award the veteran in favor of a quasi-comeback?
Don't forget about Leo, either. If "The Departed" has enough supporters, or Arkin and Murphy possibly split votes, the guild may leap at the opportunity to award DiCaprio's lead actor work in the supporting actor category. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me.
Three possibilities, who will it be? Will the Screen Actors Guild march to the beat of their own drummer, or simply follow everyone else's lead?
Predicted Winner: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Alternate: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
Now, this isn't a category where the frontrunner is threatened by a "Little Miss Sunshine" actor. In fact, there isn't a threat to the frontrunner at all. Unless another Dame pulls a miracle out of her hat, or a certain Ms. Miranda Priestly woos over the acting body, it's all about Dame/Reigning Queen Helen Mirren.
Predicted Winner: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Alternate: Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
I hate the fact that I'm picking all of the obvious frontrunners here, but I'm about to do it again. I understand that Miramax has sent out 100,000 screeners for "Venus," but I don't quite have the balls to predict the veteran in his possible swan song. On the other hand, I will say, if Peter is awarded on Sunday night, the Oscar is his.
How loved is Forest Whitaker's performance, exactly? Whitaker has swept nearly every award this year, but can he hold off Peter O'Toole down the final stretch? We'll find out soon enough.
Predicted Winner: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Alternate: Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
The biggest award of the night could give one of the three Best Picture nominees represented here a huge boost heading down the home stretch.
"Babel" is certainly favorable considering its large, diverse international cast with a couple of respected names in the mix. It also has that "important factor" going for it.
"The Departed" has a cast list that jumps off the page at you, that much is certain. With so many loved actors and performances in the film, the acting guild could pass over Leo in the supporting category and decide to honor it all here. Of course, the Nicholson and Wahlberg exclusions could prove that there isn't a great deal of love for the picture, but I think those omissions are due more to Warner Brothers' shoddy campaign. The film is loved across the nation, and it does have that hefty box office total in its favor.
If any film is loved more across the nation, though, it's "Little Miss Sunshine." With a small, strong ensemble leading a performance-driven indie comedy, it reminds me of another similar film that won this award two years ago: "Sideways." It plays wonderfully on DVD, it's a true crowd-pleaser, it's got a "cute factor," six nomination-worthy performances -- I think it's winning.
Or it could be "Dreamgirls." How funny would that be?
Predicted Winner: "Little Miss Sunshine"
Alternate: "The Departed"
Hey, maybe I'll get one right?
The 13th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards Predictions
Best Actor - Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Best Actress - Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Ensemble - "Little Miss Sunshine"
My Absence Explained or: How Technology Bitchslapped Me 3 Days Before the Biggest Day of the Cineyear or: The Clint Ends the 'Dream'
Saturday. January 20th. 09:29am. For over 100 hours.
108, to be exact.
Of all of the four-day stints for your cable modem to die on you. Of all of the times. It had to happen to me. This week. Me.
This, of course, explains my lack of finalized predictions, and planned instantaneous nomination reaction. Hell, I had to wait until Wednesday just to find out who was nominated in the other fourteen categories.
Nevertheless. Let us not dwell in the past, but focus on the present. You will have to excuse me for my delayed reaction, as, of course, I have not had the ability to express it in the wide world of webs. So, here it goes:
DREAMGIRLSOMGWTFBBQ!?!blahblahblah.
Honestly, is Clint the Messiah of Tinseltown? Where did this come from? A month or two ago, sure, expected. But not lately. At least not over a heavy frontrunner like "Dreamgirls."
"Dreamgirls", you know, the film with the most nominations this year. The film has the distinct dishonor of becoming the first picture in the history of the Oscars to lead in nominations, but miss Picture. It also missed Director and Screenplay, to boot. The film did, however, have almost as many nominations in one category (Original Song) as "Letters from Iwo Jima" had altogether. "Letters" managed to secure only four nominations: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Sound Editing. In fact, two films ("Dreamgirls, "Pan's Labyrinth") scored as many or more nominations as four Best Picture nominees. This does, indeed, looks to be a "spread the wealth" type of year.
My favorite nomination of the morning, without a doubt, was Paul Greengrass in the Directing category for "United 93." I've been predicting it nearly the entire year, and have been steadfast in my hope and belief that his amazing work would be recognized by the Academy. "United 93" also, expectedly (at least by me), showed up in the Film Editing category.
It was also wonderful to see three well-deserved nominations for "Children of Men," including one for Best Adapted Screenplay. "Apocalypto," "The Prestige," and "Pan's Labyrinth" also delightfully surprised me, each film scoring more than one nomination. The latter, in particular, is the most nominated foreign film since 2000's "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." It is also very pleasing to see the likes of "Marie Antoinette," "Borat," "Superman Returns," and "The Good Shepherd" on the ballot.
Naturally, the morning did serve its helping of moans and groans. First and foremost, it is unforgivable that Mr. Jack Nicholson is not present in the Best Supporting Actor category. In fact, only one "Departed" performance was recognized by the Academy, that of Mark Wahlberg. DiCaprio did manage to land a Best Actor nomination, albeit for the wrong film. Speaking of, "Blood Diamond" is a five-time Oscar nominee. No, you did not read it wrong. Yes, it is mind-boggling. And I won't even touch "Babel"'s seven nominations.
Oh, and Click: Academy Award nominee. Wow.
It it impossible to read the Academy from this ballot. Honestly, I could see all five of these pictures taking home the biggest award of the night. I'll post my predicted winners this weekend, and update continuously between then and Oscar night.
It's nice to be back.
Globes Offer Few Surprises, Become More Irrelevant
11 out of 14 for my predictions. Not bad, not bad. I really wish I had gotten one more wrong, however.More later.
Mmm, Globe Predictions.
Playing it safe for tomorrow, save maybe one.
Picture (Drama)
"Babel"
Blah. I can feel the vomit rising in my throat now. It seems that most are predicting "The Departed," with the remaining crowd predicting "Babel." I don't want to see it come to fruition (I never said this was an unbiased blog), but I am afraid it will. "Babel" leads in nominations, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association seems to have loved it, and it's not like "The Departed" is a juggernaut of a frontrunner. I hope to see "The Departed" win the top prize tomorrow night, but I'll be a pessimist and call "Babel."
Picture (Musical or Comedy)
"Dreamgirls"
The grand musical blockbuster versus the little film that could. The HFPA obviously didn't love "Little Miss Sunshine," only bestowing a mere two nominations on the indie comedy. Aside from Picture, Collette was nominated in the Lead Actress category, while they snubbed Arkin, Breslin, and the film's screenplay and directors. A mild upset could still prevail, but I'm thinking "Dreamgirls" all the way here.
Director
Martin Scorsese - "The Departed"
Actor (Drama)
Forest Whitaker - "The Last King of Scotland"
Actress (Drama)
Helen Mirren - "The Queen"
Actor (Musical or Comedy)
Sacha Baron Cohen - "Borat"Actress (Musical or Comedy)
Meryl Streep - "The Devil Wears Prada"
Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy - "Dreamgirls" Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson - "Dreamgirls"
Screenplay
"The Departed"Original Score
"Babel"
Original Song
"Listen" from "Dreamgirls" Foreign Language Film "Letters from Iwo Jima"Animated Film
"Cars"
Critics' Choice Awards Winners
Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a Best Picture race.
"The Departed" wasn't the biggest winner of the night -- only winning two, -- but it won the two that count. Scorsese and his film took home top honors at tonight's Broadcast Film Critics Association's Critics' Choice Awards. "Dreamgirls" and "Little Miss Sunshine" led in wins, each film winning four each.
Queen Mirren and Forest Whitaker continue their dominance this season, both adding wins to their already staggering total. Murphy and Hudson were cited in the supporting categories. A 4/4 match with Oscar is very, very possible. Hudson and Mirren are locks, and I've always had a hunch about Murphy. Whitaker would be in good shape for a win, if not for O'Toole looming.
The Globes on Monday will be interesting to watch. If "The Departed" can hold off "Babel" in Picture - Drama, and if "Dreamgirls" can hold off "Little Miss Sunshine" in Picture - Musical/Comedy, a "Dreamgirls" vs. "The Departed" battle will ensue. "Little Miss Sunshine" will never be far behind, of course. Barring a "Babel" surge, it's a three-horse race. Oh, and I still need to see "The Illusionist," BUT, Clint Mansell was robbed.
Your complete list of winners from tonight's 12th Annual BFCA Critics' Choice Awards:
Best Picture
"The Departed"
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Best Actor
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Best Actress
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Acting Ensemble
"Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Writer
Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Young Actor
Paul Dano, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Young Actress
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Comedy Movie
"Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
Best Family Film
"Charlotte's Web"
Best Picture Made for Television
"Elizabeth I"
Best Animated Feature
"Cars"
Best Documentary Feature
"An Inconvenient Truth"
Best Foreign Language Film
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
Best Song
"Listen" by Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls"
Best Soundtrack
"Dreamgirls"
Best Composer
Philip Glass, "The Illusionist"
Booyakasha. BAFTA.
A bit too long-winded to post. At least in the rush I'm in.BAFTA nominees.
God save The Queen, huh? Nothing much to talk about here. Lots of love for "The Queen," "Casino Royale," "The Last King of Scotland," and the three amigos. No love for "Borat" and Mr. Sacha Baron Cohen. What's the deal, my British folk?
And, The Editors
The American Cinema Editors nominees:
Drama
"Babel," Stephen Mirrione, Douglas Crise
"Casino Royale," Stuart Baird
"The Departed," Thelma Schoonmaker
"The Queen," Lucia Zuccheti
"United 93," Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse, Richard Pearson
Comedy/Musical
"The Devil Wears Prada," Mark Livolsi
"Dreamgirls," Virginia Katz
"Little Miss Sunshine," Pamela Martin
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Craig Wood, Stephen Rivkin
"Thank You for Smoking," Dan Glauberman
All of the Best Picture contenders show up, along with "United 93," the alternate in the locked-up Best Picture race now. "Letters from Iwo Jima" continues to get the cold shoulder from the guilds, while "The Devil Wears Prada" continues to ride its wave of support.
The BAFTA nominations announcement is coming within hours. Stay tuned for those.
And, The Cinematographers
The American Society of Cinematographers nominees:
"Apocalypto," Dean Semler
"The Black Dahlia," Vilmos Zsigmond
"Children of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki
"The Good Shepherd," Robert Richardson
"The Illusionist," Dick Pope
Aside from "Children of Men," what can you say? "The Good Shepherd" and "Apocalypto" aren't too surprising, but I can't say the same about the other two. "The Illusionist" is, surprisingly, finding guild support.
Another "Dreamgirls" snub to point out here. The omissions of "Babel" and "The Departed" are surprising. I do believe it's the first guild that those two films have missed. The other guild juggernaut this year, "Little Miss Sunshine," was never a contender here, obviously.
"Letters from Iwo Jima"/"Flags of Our Fathers" misses another one. Is it vote-splitting? Is it just a general lack of enthusiasm? Did anyone even get to see "Letters?" A Best Picture nomination for "Letters" would be considered one of the biggest surprises in Oscar nomination history now, given the lack of guild support.
And, The Costumers
The Costume Designer's Guild has weighed in. The nominees are:
Contemporary
"Babel," Michael Wilkinson
"Casino Royale," Lindy Hemming
"The Devil Wears Prada," Patricia Field
"Little Miss Sunshine," Nancy Steiner
"The Queen," Consolata Boyle
Period
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Chung Man Yee
"Dreamgirls," Sharen Davis
"The Illusionist," Ngila Dickson
"Marie Antoinette," Milena Canonero
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Penny Rose
Fantasy
"Eragon," Kym Barrett
"The Fountain," Renee April
"Pan's Labyrinth," Lala Huete
"V for Vendetta," Sammy Sheldon
"X-Men: The Last Stand," Judianna Makovsky
Variety has the story.
Look through those fifteen CDG nominees, and you're bound to find the five Oscar nominees. Mark this down as another hole in the sinking ship that is "Clint Campaign '06/'07." "Bobby" missed, so I'll probably be taking it out of my predix now. Other than that, nothing too revelatory here. "Marie Antoinette," "Dreamgirls," and "The Devil Wears Prada" are the most likely nominees. "Curse of the Golden Flower," "The Illusionist," "The Queen", or maybe even "Pirates" should compete for the final spots on the ballot.
The Writers Chime In
Writers Guild of America Nominees
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel, Written by Guillermo Arriaga, Paramount Vantage
Little Miss Sunshine, Written by Michael Arndt, Fox Searchlight Pictures
The Queen, Written by Peter Morgan, Miramax Films
Stranger Than Fiction, Written by Zach Helm, Sony Pictures Entertainment
United 93, Written by Paul Greengrass, Universal Pictures
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Peter Baynham & Dan Mazer, Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Peter Baynham & Anthony Hines & Todd Phillips, Based on a Character Created by Sacha Baron Cohen, Twentieth Century Fox
The Departed, Screenplay by William Monahan, Based on the Motion Picture Internal Affairs, Written by Alan Mak and Felix Chong, Warner Bros. Pictures
The Devil Wears Prada, Screenplay by Aline Brosh McKenna, Based on the Novel by Lauren Weisberger, Twentieth Century Fox
Little Children, Screenplay by Todd Field & Tom Perrotta, Based on the Novel by Tom Perrotta, New Line Cinema
Thank You for Smoking, Screenplay by Jason Reitman, Based on the Novel by Christopher Buckley, Fox Searchlight Pictures
Hooray for "United 93!" "Babel," "Little Miss Sunshine," and "The Departed" complete their sweep of the four major guilds. "Dreamgirls" takes a hit here, while "Letters" appears to be dead and buried. "Letters" swept the guilds, just not the way they wanted to. One has to wonder if Clint's two World War II films can even muster up a couple of nominations at this point.
Also announced today were the Cinematography and Costuming guilds. I'll be posting those shortly. Expect another predix revision, too.
DGA in, Eastwood out
So much for "immediately." Blogger was down, unfortunately.
From Variety:
“The Directors Guild has selected Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for "Babel," Bill Condon for "Dreamgirls," Martin Scorsese for "The Departed," Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris for "Little Miss Sunshine" and Stephen Frears for "The Queen" as nominees for its top feature directing award.
DGA president Michael Apted made the announcement Tuesday morning at guild headquarters in Hollywood. The winner, to be decided by voting among the 13,000 DGA members, will be announced Feb. 3 in ceremonies at the Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles.
The winner of the DGA award will be a front-runner for the directing Oscar. The DGA winner and the Oscar winner have matched in 52 of the last 58 years, including last year when Ang Lee won both trophies for "Brokeback Mountain."
The nominees were chosen by DGA members from over 400 eligible films with a theatrical release in 2006.”
And so, there it is. The Directors Guild of America. Underwhelming is the word, I do believe.
As I said yesterday, the DGA isn’t one for surprises, but apparently they forgot about that. I was dreading, but somewhat expecting, Inarritu to get in over Greengrass and others. He did. However, the big story of the day is the omission of Eastwood, considered yesterday as the most likely nominee only behind Scorsese. Instead of Eastwood, the DGA went with the 1-2 punch of "Little Miss Sunshine" -- Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris.
Could this really be our Best Picture lineup? Could all of Warner Bros.’ maneuvering of “Letters” be for naught? The obvious three are virtual locks, with “Babel” also appearing safe now. At least for now, I’ll side with the DGA’s forecast. I think you’re looking at our five Best Picture nominees.
Director is, naturally, a horse of a different color. Many a-time before we’ve had a director get in without his or her picture being nominated for the top prize. I’m still surprised about the “Little Miss Sunshine” duo getting in at the DGA, so I still have my doubts about their Oscar prospects in the Director category. Eastwood, even Greengrass, Altman, del Toro, or Cuaron, remain in the hunt for a Director nod. It’s impossible to predict whether Oscar and DGA will match 5/5, 4/5, or even 3/5.
Updated predictions in wake of this afternoon’s announcement will be posted this evening.
Final Stand
This is it for "United 93," really. If it's to show up for Best Picture in two weeks, it really must snag a nomination tomorrow (1pm EST) with the DGA. The consensus stands at Scorsese, Eastwood, Frears, Condon, and Inarritu. I've been predicting a Greengrass nomination here for months, and I see no reason to retract that. The lineup above does seem most likely, particularly with the "Babel" love that has surfaced lately. Still, and it may be the optimist in me here, I remain adamant with my Greengrass prediction. However, if the consensus five does get in tomorrow, you're probably looking at your five Best Picture nominees.
As for surprises, which DGA has never heeded to, watch for a possible Condon snub, or a strong showing from the "Three Amigos" -- Alfonso Cuaron, Guillermo del Toro, and the aforementioned Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. Aside from the eight I have mentioned here, Mr. Robert Altman is also a small possibility.
The Directors Guild of America has been the most reliable indicator of how the Best Picture lineup will look on nomination morning, predicting all five films for the past four years. My predictions for tomorrow's announcement, in order of likelihood:
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"
Alternates, in order of likelihood:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Guillermo del Toro, "Pan's Labyrinth"
Alfonso Cuaron, "Children of Men"
Robert Altman, "A Prairie Home Companion"
When the announcement is made, just like last year, it will be posted immediately along with thoughts. Some post-SAG/post-DGA/pre-WGA/pre-other guilds predix tweaking due tomorrow too, promise.
Late, Brief: Producers
Earlier this week, the Producers Guild of America handed down their nominations for Best Picture. "The Departed," "The Queen," and "Dreamgirls" were shoo-ins all the way. "Babel" showed up, asserting itself as a likely Picture nominee on January 23rd. If it grabs a DGA nomination, it's in. "Little Miss Sunshine" also managed to squeeze in there, knocking out critical darling "United 93" and snubbee "Letters from Iwo Jima."
Other than the "Letters" snub, there really isn't anything very surprising about this list at all. Hopefully the DGA will be more exciting Tuesday. Below is the five nominated films contending for Best Picture honors from the PGA, alongside the films in the Animated category.
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
Animated
"Cars"
"Flushed Away"
"Happy Feet"
"Ice Age: The Meltdown"
"Monster House"
Screen Actors Guild Announces, Does Usual Song and Dance
Per usual, The Screen Actors Guild answered about as many questions as they asked this morning when they announced their choices for this year's nominees. Nothing too revelatory though. No Cloris Leachman, no Freddie Highmore, not even a "Hustle & Flow."
First off - OK, I got it. No Cohen. I really thought he would have gotten in today, but alas, no silver dollar. I'll be taking him out of my predix this afternoon, though he does still linger on the outskirts.
In the answered group, Lead and Supporting Actress seem locked to me. I've been one of the few who has been steadfast in predicting Abigail Breslin for an Oscar mention, knowing that the SAG would nominate her turn in "Little Miss Sunshine," even without that Globe nomination. That Globe omission is irrelevent now, as far as I'm concerned. Barring any unusual changes, I think Breslin is certainly in for a Supporting Actress nomination in a couple of weeks. Today's announcement should end most of the O'Hara talk that has surfaced over the holidays, however deserving it may be.
As reported by various sources yesterday, by Warner Bros. dropping the ball this season, DiCaprio landed in the supporting category for his incredible work in "The Departed." That, coupled with the lead nomination for "Blood Diamond" entices a very awkward position for the studio. Because of Warner's handling of these two performances, DiCaprio could end up with as many two, or as few as zero Oscar nominations on the 23rd. It would be a damn shame for DiCaprio, with the career-best year that he is having, to be left out in the cold on nomination morning. Inexplicable.
Supporting Actor is now officially, certifiably ridiculous. Globes say Nicholson, Pitt, Affleck, Wahlberg -- SAG says DiCaprio, Hounsou, Haley, Arkin. The only constant is Eddie Murphy, who hasn't missed a nomination this year, and has picked up his share of critical wins. An Oscar win for Murphy could be just around the corner. As for Michael Sheen, it disappoints me that he hasn't been able to build any momentum this year -- despite winning several critical accolades. I'll update my predictions later this afternoon, but I have no idea what to forecast in this category. Easily, the most headache-inducing category of the year.
As for ensemble, "United 93" draws another unfortunate snub. DGA is really the film's last chance on Tuesday. I still think it has a shot. "Dreamgirls," "Little Miss Sunshine," and "Babel" don't surprise me here. "The Departed" got in with only one other nomination, which casts doubt over my thought earlier in the week that the film could win the Ensemble prize. It still may, but "Dreamgirls" -- or even, sadly, "Babel," the pebble inside of the shoe this season -- is now just as likely. Of course, disregard the "Bobby" nomination. The film is NOT showing up in Picture, or any acting category on Oscar nomination morning. And unlike most, I was never sold on "Letters from Iwo Jima" making the cut here. Even without it, I don't think it hinders its likely (see: almost locked) Best Picture nomination.
Continued thoughts, updated Oscar predix, and my late PGA (Producers' Guild, not golf) coverage coming this afternoon.
Ensemble
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Actor
Leonardo Dicaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
