A Couple of Notes
• As the some of the best films of 2005 hit DVD, expect a few changes to come to my top 25 list. Some films moving up, some films moving down.
• Which reminds me, don't forget to run out and pick up Peter Jackson's
King Kong on DVD tomorrow!
•
Inside Man review going up in the coming days.
Full 'United 93' Trailer Released
In high definition, courtesy of Apple.
http://www.apple.com/trailers/universal/united93/hd/
It will certainly grab everyone's attention. I'm still interested to see how it's received both critically and domestically.
Cannes Contenders Taking Shape
Sofia Coppola's Marie-Antoinette, Pedro Almodóvar's Volver, David Lynch's Inland Empire, and Alejandro González Iñárritu's Babel are expected to headline the 59th Cannes Film Festival in May. Other possibilities are Darren Aronofsky's The Fountain, and Richard Linklater's Fast Food Nation.The reaction that I'm looking forward to most is Marie-Antoinette. After The Virgin Suicides and especially Lost In Translation, I'm expecting great things from Coppola's latest. That fine trailer is just the cherry on top.Expect a full list to be released in the next month. With the level of talent that is producing films this year, this year's festival could easily be one of the greatest ever.•
Source.
A Brief Note
Inside Man hits theatres nationwide tomorrow. However, don't expect a review for it here until about Monday or Tuesday. Tomorrow is someone's birthday, so someone will be unable to screen it.
As soon as I can, it'll be posted.
"I want these motherfuckin' snakes off the motherfuckin' plane!"
http://www.tagworld.com/snakesonaplane
Snakes + Plane = Snakes on a Plane. A classic in the making?
Marching in the Streets
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V for Vendetta
(James McTeigue, 2006)
Review by Shawn Snead / March 17th, 2006
I'm not going to sit here and compare the film adaptation of V for Vendetta to the comic book. It's entirely unfair, completely irrelevent, and quite frankly, ridiculous. Movies based on previously existing work should not come with excess baggage or some sort of companion piece. The film works alone, and alone, it works well.
Set against the backdrop of a totalitarian England, a masked revolutionary only identified as "V" uses terror (see:terrorist) tactics in an attempt to overthrow the vicious regime. The film, contrary to what some may write, does not glorify terrorism. It is, however, a bit reckless in its exemplification. Some will perceive that V is more of a terrorist than a patriot, and vice versa. Its message isn't subtle, and at times, its Bush undertones are suffocating. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out this film's intentions.
When V saves an ordinary young woman, Evey (Natalie Portman), she joins V in his struggle against the forces of tyranny. Natalie, at times, struggles with her British accent. Other than that, she flourishes in her role. Physically and emotionally demanding, it's one of the most difficult performances she's had to pull off. While not in the same league of her turns in Closer or Léon, Portman continues to demonstrate why she is one of the brightest young stars in Hollywood. As she continues to mature as an actor, she'll only improve.
Hugo Weaving is perfect as V. His distinct voice, unified with the Wachowski brothers' stylish, snappy script, provides a charming linguistic carnival. His chemistry with Natalie -- albeit 'masked,' so to speak -- is readily apparent. A good thing, considering its vitality to the story's structure. Even if that story's structure is a bit clunky.
The film goes from event to event, on occasion, with no reason or rhyme. In that sense, it's unbalanced -- and at times, staggering around the auditorium. It can also be incredibly overambitious and overblown, and just downright obnoxious -- but I mean that in the best way possible. Even at its lowest, V never ceases to entertain. James McTeigue's dark, intriguing comic book adaptation is sure to reach 'cult classic' status in no time.
Technically, the film is superb. The team that brought us The Matrix Trilogy doesn't serve up something quite as equally extravagant, but it doesn't look too shabby.
Fresh off of an Academy Award nomination for his work on Pride & Prejudice, Dario Marianelli's surprisingly effective work here certainly deserves, I think, a respectable amount of praise and recognition. The overall use of music, including Tschaikowsky’s 1812 Overture -- as buildings are exploding, stands out as one of the finest characteristics of the film. The use of music contributes to a couple of surprisingly powerful scenes -- Evey's rebirth, in particular, along with the film's satisfying ending.
The film draws a few obvious similarities to The Phantom of the Opera and The Count of Monte Cristo -- which V states as his favorite film, of course. No accident, I'm sure.
The one word you've heard me employ more than all of the others in this review might be surprising. I went into the film with average-to-below average expectations. When I left, that was the feeling that I had. V for Vendetta is, clearly, no vast cinematic or political breakthrough. However, it is entertaining, it is smarter than your average thriller, and it does provoke a thought or two.
B-
_
Directed by James McTeigue; written by The Wachowski Brothers - Alan Moore, David Lloyd (characters); produced by Grant Hill, Joel Silver, The Wachowski Brothers; original score by Dario Marianelli; cinematography by Adrian Biddle; editing by Martin Walsh; released by Warner Bros. Running time 132 mins. Rated R for strong violence and some language. Released March 17th, 2006.
Starring Hugo Weaving (V), Natalie Portman (Evey), Stephen Rea (Finch), Stephen Fry (Deitrich), John Hurt (Adam Sutler), Tim Pigott-Smith (Creedy), Rupert Graves (Dominic).
Buy Me: Good Night, And Good Luck
I love this film. I know that others offer up criticisms of simplicity and Clooney's one-sided take on the matter, but the film never really tries to be more than it is. It's a snapshot of this window in history.
Delicately directed by George Clooney, and likewise acted by David Strathairn et al, the film was my third favorite of the Best Picture nominees last year. It's a neatly dressed, taut, fine piece of cinema. Currently placed #10 in my top ten of 2005.
- V for Vendetta review is going up this weekend -- among other things.
Some 'Scape Changes / 2006 begins with 'V'
As you can see, I've redesigned Cinemascape a bit this weekend. More minor changes will probably come over the next month or so. I am, of course, always open to any further comments or suggestions concerning the design/layout.
I'll be seeing my first 2006 film this week in
V for Vendetta. Certainly looking forward to kicking off my 2006 movie season after such a sorry opening to the year. Two and a half months in, and we finally have a film worthy checking out? Yikes. Fortunately, the rest of the year doesn't look as bad at all.
The 'Crash' Heard 'Round the World
(Timothy A. Clary / Getty Images)
Last night, the world froze for a second. Jack Nicholson opened the final envelope of the evening, took a look at it, and hesitated. He was taken aback. "And the Oscar goes to... 'Crash'." And then, we were taken aback. Some were crushed. Some were overjoyed. Some were angry. Everyone was in utter disbelief.
24 hours later, the picture remains fuzzy. Sure, "Crash" had mounted a valiant campaign over the past month, had the media on its side, and had homefield advantage. But still, "Brokeback" had won really every Best Picture award this season. All of them. Except the one that mattered most.
Some are calling homophobia. Some are calling for a boycott. Some are packing it in and leaving Oscarwatching behind. Personally, I think those last two are silly. But, I won't open that can of worms. To each his own.
The first part, however, the homophobia argument, could hold merit. Academy member Tony Curtis publicly stated that he would not view "Brokeback Mountain" due to its gay content. Did the Academy take one step forward, two steps back with its public image and social progression? We may never know, and I won't divulge into that. It's not my place. My personal choice for the win was "Brokeback Mountain" or "Capote," however neither film made my top three. I'm one who enjoyed all five Picture nominees, so I'm not too discouraged at the "Crash" upset. An upset that, undoubtedly, unquestionably, is one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history.
(Monica Almedia / The New York Times)
Moving on, one of the highlights of the night for me, as I'm sure it was for many, was Three 6 Mafia taking home the Best Original Song Oscar for "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp," from "Hustle & Flow." It's always great to see a genuinely happy winner, who isn't afraid to express that joy onstage.
Philip Seymour Hoffman deservingly won Best Actor for "Capote." A long time fan of his, it's really terrific to see him get what he deserves in spades. Hoffman, along with the always adorable Reese Witherspoon who won Best Actress for "Walk the Line," provided two of the more memorable, poignant speeches of the night. It was also great to see Robert Altman finally get himself an Oscar.
I love Amy Adams. I know, it's irrelevant to this discussion, she didn't win. Neither did my boy, Mr. Giamatti, unfortunately. But, I am totally and completely in love with Amy Adams. So, there you have it.
Of course, it's also wonderful to see my personal #1 film of the year, "King Kong," tie for most wins last night. Albeit tied with one of the worst films of the year, "Memoirs of a Geisha." "Brokeback Mountain" and "Crash" also co-led with three wins each, "Crash" of course taking picture, "Brokeback" taking Best Director.
(Reuters)
Some of the worst parts of the ceremony included the embarrassing stage performance of Best Original Song nominee "In The Deep." Really, a burning car, and interpretive dancers wandering around the stage? I couldn't hear the song over my laughing. Speaking of cringe-inducing behavior; did anyone else see a vision of James Cameron's "I'm the king of the world!" speech in their head when director Ang Lee opened his acceptance speech with "I wish I knew how to quit you." Yikes. Please, can we retire that line already?
Oh, and the illustration of disrespect shown by running people off the stage with light dims, music swelling, and mic cuttage HAS to go. Talk about shameful.
Overall, I enjoyed the show and the ceremony. First-time host Jon Stewart handled things very well, I thought. I hope that he gets asked back soon, though I doubt that he will.
• As far as my predictions go, I landed 19 out of 24. Not bad at all, though I did miss the biggest category of the night. I also missed cinematography, original score, original song, and documentary short. However, with alternates, I hit 23 out of 24. Documentary short was the only category that I missed completely.
So, I guess that does it for the 2005-2006 awards season. Talk about closing it out with a bang, my ears are still ringing. I hope that everyone has enjoyed Cinemascape's coverage of everything. This was the first season of awards coverage here at Cinemascape, since I created this place a week after the 2004-2005 season last year. No doubt, I will get better with time. Next year's coverage will be bigger and better.
• Expect some aesthetic changes to take place here at Cinemascape this month. Some minor things, maybe a facelift - however, nothing Joan Rivers-like. This week, I'll post some thoughts on the next awards season, but other than that, you should expect the awards coverage portion of Cinemascape to slow down drastically over the next several months. Reviews, thoughts, and overall film commentary, however, will surely increase.
Bye-bye 2005.
Crash-ed
This weekend, I asked, "Could
Crash shock the world?"
Well. It just did.
Talk about being knocked sideways. Ho-lee cow.
Complete wrap-up coming early tomorrow. I'm sort of dumbfounded right now.
Please, Oscar
Grant me these three wishes.
Best Supporting Actor - Paul Giamatti!Best Supporting Actress - Amy Adams!King Kong goes 4 for 4!Kong is the best film of the year, Amy Adams delivers the second-best overall performance of 2005, and Paul Giamatti deserves an Oscar for his last three years of work. It pains me to pick against Adams and Giamatti, especially Giamatti, because I correctly called his SAG win. Please, prove me wrong.
Please, please, please, please, please...
Last Call
It's time. My winner predictions for tomorrow night's Academy Awards.
I'll be updating Cinemascape periodically all day tomorrow, tomorrow night, and late tomorrow night after the ceremony with various tidbits, news, reaction, analysis, thoughts, and all around musings. Enjoy the rest of the Oscar weekend, folks. It's sure to be a good one.
Now, watch me get all of my predictions wrong.
BEST PICTURE
• Brokeback Mountain
(alt. Crash)
BEST DIRECTOR
• Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
(alt. George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck)
BEST ACTOR
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote(alt. Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain)
BEST ACTRESS
• Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line(alt. Felicity Huffman - Transamerica)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
• George Clooney - Syriana(alt. Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener(alt. Amy Adams - Junebug)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• Brokeback Mountain
(alt. Capote)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Crash(alt. Good Night, and Good Luck.)
BEST ART DIRECTION
• Memoirs of a Geisha(alt. King Kong)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Brokeback Mountain
(alt. Memoirs of a Geisha)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
• Memoirs of a Geisha(alt. Walk the Line)
BEST FILM EDITING
• Crash(alt. Munich)
BEST MAKEUP
• The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe(alt. Star Wars - Episode III: Revenge of the Sith)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
• Memoirs of a Geisha(alt. Brokeback Mountain)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG (talk about a crapshoot.)
• Crash(alt. Hustle & Flow)
BEST SOUND
• King Kong(alt. Walk the Line)
BEST SOUND EDITING
• King Kong
(alt. War of the Worlds)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
• King Kong
(alt. War of the Worlds)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
• Tsotsi
(alt. Paradise Now)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
• Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit(alt. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
• March of the Penguins
(alt. Darwin's Nightmare)
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
• Six Shooter(alt. Ausreisser (The Runaway))
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
• The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
(alt. 9)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
• God Sleeps In Rwanda(alt. The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club)
A Closer Look: Best Picture
Here it is, to round out our A Closer Look at Oscar series, an examination of the Best Picture category. I hope that you all have enjoyed the category breakdowns over the past few days. Up next, my final predictions, coming in hours.
Brokeback Mountain
Diana Ossana, James Schamus
A lock for most of the awards season, Brokeback Mountain still holds the strongest chance of winning tomorrow. Crash has made a run at it, sure, I give you that. But if this precursor system works at all, Brokeback Mountain will win. We'll find out soon.
Chances of Winning
60% - No reins on this one.
---
Capote Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael Ohoven
Who would have thought that this would have been possible earlier in 2005? Nobody. Capote far exceeded its expectations, my expectations, everyone's expectations. Both in its performance throughout this awards season, and in the film's high quality.
Chances of Winning
2% - It doesn't stand a chance, I know.
---
CrashPaul Haggis, Cathy Schulman
Could Crash shock the world? Could the fan favorite make a valiant comeback for the win? It could happen. It COULD happen. WILL it happen? No, I don't think so. It has a shot though, I give it that. It certainly stands a better chance than it did a two months ago. Still, I think Crash comes up short.
Chances of Winning
28% - The only film that could take Brokeback down.
---
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Grant HeslovGood Night, And Good Luck. has really been the only film besides Brokeback that has been a constant fixture at almost every awards ceremony this season. It hasn't transferred into many wins, but Mr. Clooney's film sure has enlightened, entertained -- and he himself sure has amused us -- all season long.
Chances of Winning
5% - They can't all win.
---
MunichSteven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy, Barry Mendel
What happened? Steven Spielberg's Munich was locked, cocked, and ready to go. But it has just sort of limped around all season long, finally collapsing into the top five here. Surely not the path that the Munich camp, nor the path that all of us thought the film would take.
Chances of Winning
5% - How the mighty fall.
---
CINEMASCAPE SAYS... Brokeback Mountain.
It's been locked since the DGA, even though its certainty has been somewhat shaken over the past month. A Crash upset is still possible, however, I remain confident in my pick.
Who WILL Win: Brokeback Mountain
Who SHOULD Win: Brokeback Mountain (just nudging out Capote)
Who Should/Shouldn't Be Here: Forget all the others. It's King Kong, the best picture of the year.
A Closer Look: Best Director
We're getting closer...Here's a concentrated look at the Best Director category. Expect a further examination of the Best Picture category to be up very shortly to round out our A Closer Look series. And tonight, expect my final, absolute, complete predictions along with other last-minute thoughts and analysis.
George Clooney
Good Night, And Good Luck.
The "it" man of the past year, the entertainer of the year, if you will, George Clooney. As I pondered in my breakdown of the supporting actor category, will Clooney walk away with an Oscar this weekend? If he does, I highly, highly doubt that it will be in this category.
Precursor Support
Wins: --
Nominations: DGA, Globe, BAFTA, ISA, OFCS, Satellite
Chances of Winning
14% - Very, very, very outside chance.
---
Paul Haggis
Crash
Despite release date obstacles and little early precursor support, Paul Haggis and Crash are enjoying a late surge of momentum that could shake up things this weekend. However, Haggis still really isn't considered a legitimate threat here, nor should he be. But I must say, the man has to be enjoying the remarkable success that he has encountered over the past two years. Four Oscar nominations in two years ain't too shabby.
Precursor Support
Wins: --
Nominations: DGA, BAFTA
Chances of Winning
9% - No.
---
Ang Lee
Brokeback Mountain
After unjustifiably losing Best Director five years ago for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Ang Lee finds himself back in the running for Brokeback Mountain. Ang has swept really every directing award this season, and should stay on that course Sunday.
Precursor Support
Wins: DGA, Globe, BAFTA, ISA, BFCA, BSFC, NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, SFFCC, DFWFC, ALFS, SEFC, VFC, Satellite, Venice
Nominations: OFCS
Chances of Winning
70% - Several locked categories this year. This is another one.
---
Bennett Miller
Capote I doubt that you had heard the name Bennett Miller before a few months ago. I know that I sure hadn't. His outstanding work on Capote really has been one of the biggest surprises this year. Bennett Miller -- Academy Award nominee. Not bad for a first-time feature film director.
Precursor Support
Wins: Gotham
Nominations: DGA, BAFTA, Berlin, OFCS, Satellite
Chances of Winning
2% - Somebody has to be last.
---
Steven Spielberg
Munich
Usually a frontrunner any other year in this category, Steven Spielberg finds himself just happy to be nominated this year. He's had one of his busiest years in his career, directing both War of the Worlds and Munich. Both films are nominated this weekend, but (unfortunately, and unjustly) have to be considered small disappointments after the lofty expectations set for both films.
Precursor Support
Wins: Venice
Nominations: DGA, Globe, BFCA, OFCS
Chances of Winning
5% - It's just not Spielberg's year.
---
CINEMASCAPE SAYS... Ang Lee.
He certainly looks unbeatable.
Who WILL Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Who SHOULD Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (Just nudging out Clooney.)
Who Should/Shouldn't Be Here: I'd remove Spielberg and Haggis for Malick and the best director of the year, Peter Jackson for King Kong. The last spot is tough, but I'd probably place Cronenberg in just before Miller.
A Closer Look: Best Actor
Time to dissect another locked category.
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Capote
The two words that any Oscarwatcher loves to hear side-by-side during awards season: locked and deserving. Hoffman is both of those things, and then some. He, like Reese Witherspoon over in the lead actress category, has swept everything -- EVERYTHING -- this season. It's the second consecutive year that someone has done that in this category. He has my pick for the best overall performance of 2005, and one of the greatest in the last fifteen years.
Precursor Support
Wins: SAG, Globe, BAFTA, BFCA, LAFCA, OFCS, CFC, NSFC, FFC, KCFC, UFC, TFC, SDFC, DFW, SEFC, WAFC, NBR, BSFC, NYOFC, IFCA, VFC, Satellite
Nominations: ISA
Chances of Winning
63% - It's his, and he deserves it.
---
Terrence Howard
Hustle & Flow
He did it. He overcame the stigma of playing a pimp, he overcame the small production and early release date, and now, Terrence Howard is an Academy Award nominee. Deservedly so, too. In my opinion, he's second only to Hoffman in this category, and third only to Adams and Hoffman overall. His intense, ranging performance in
Hustle & Flow, and his greatly overlooked (as far as awards season goes) performance in
Crash has really put Howard on the map. In 2005, Terrence Howard came into his own. In 2005, a star was born.
Precursor Support
Wins: Satellite
Nominations: Globe, BFCA, ISA, Gotham, Image, CFC, OFCS
Chances of Winning
9% - Sorry, Terrence. You deserve more than this.
---
Heath Ledger
Brokeback Mountain
What is this that I'm hearing about a possible upset? Excuse me? Has everyone gone mad? What would even provoke such a notion? Sure, Ledger's turn has been raved up and down the board, and has amassed a fair amount of critical honors. However, he doesn't even begin to approach the reception that Philip Seymour Hoffman has encountered this season. Possible spoiler? Maybe. Winner on Sunday night? No, not happening.
Precursor Support
Wins: NYFCC, COFC, SLGFC, PFC, LVFC, SFFC
Nominations: SAG, Globe, BAFTA, BFCA, ISA, OFCS, Satellite
Chances of Winning
14% - Philip's biggest "competition." Eh, whatever.
---
Joaquin Phoenix
Walk the Line Normally, pulling off Johnny Cash would be enough for a win. Without last year's Ray, Joaquin and his film may have stood a better chance with the Academy this year. Instead, the film was shut out of the Best Picture category, and Joaquin is considered a (long) longshot to win. It's really almost a shame that this year's lead actor category is so loaded. Any other year, Joaquin would surely have a much better shot.
Precursor Support
Wins: Globe
Nominations: SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, Satellite, OFCS
Chances of Winning
9% - Sorry, Joaquin.
---
David Strathairn
Good Night, And Good Luck.
In Good Night, And Good Luck., David Strathairn provides a wonderfully potent, reserved and ultimately, underappreciated performance as Edward R. Murrow. Like I mentioned above with Joaquin, it's really a shame that a performance such as David's has to fly so low under the radar in the midst of this ferocious battle of high quality. He's one of the most admired and respected actors working today. Still, he'll fall just short this year.
Precursor Support
Wins: Venice
Nominations: SAG, Globe, BFCA, BAFTA, ISA, OFCS, Satellite
Chances of Winning
5% - Again, deserving of more than this. Unfortunately, he's probably in fifth place.
---
CINEMASCAPE SAYS... Philip Seymour Hoffman.
Forget an upset. Philip has this, and he deserves it.
Who WILL Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Who SHOULD Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Who Should/Shouldn't Be Here: The lead actor category is stacked this year, all these guys should be here and then some. How about having ten nominated actors? Throw in Bill Murray for Broken Flowers, Jeff Daniels for The Squid and the Whale, Russell Crowe for Cinderella Man, Ralph Fiennes for The Constant Gardener, and Jake Gyllenhaal for Jarhead. There.
A Closer Look: Best Actress
This category has been locked since day one. Nonetheless, let's take a further look at this year's Best Actress nominees.
Judi Dench
Mrs. Henderson Presents
This year in the Judi Dench spot is, Judi Dench. Nominated 5 times in 9 years, it's well past a trend. It's really an annual reservation. Seven years ago, she won supporting actress for Shakespeare In Love. She's never won in the lead actress category, and she won't this year. Though, as we all know, she'll be back again. And sooner rather than later.
Precursor Support
Wins: SLGFC
Nominations: SAG, BAFTA, Globe, BFCA, Satellite, BIFA
Chances of Winning
2% - Not happening.
---
Felicity Huffman
Transamerica
A very real threat to win? I'm not buying it. She's second in line, no doubt, but I really don't see her getting past Reese for the win. Even with the Globe and the last-minute surge -- the film's too small, Huffman doesn't have the vast popularity that Reese enjoys, and it's really not the performance/character that beats a June Carter Cash. If I'm wrong, I'll be here for my crow on Monday.
Precursor Support
Wins: Globe, NBR, DFWFC, SEFC, VFC
Nominations: SAG, BFCA, ISA, OFCS, Satellite, Tribeca
Chances of Winning
18% - And I'm being generous.
---
Keira Knightley
Pride & Prejudice
Keira's nomination came as a surprise to some, but I do not really know why. I guess due to the SAG snub and BAFTA omission. But really, who thought that Ziyi Zhang would score more #1's and #2's than Keira? I've had her in my predictions since the film came out. The Academy loves the younger female movie star. Unfortunately for Keira, she's not the only one in this category that matches that description. In my opinion, her performance is the best in the category.
Precursor Support
Wins: NYOFC
Nominations: Globe, BFCA, OFCS, Satellite
Chances of Winning
12% - Thismuch of a chance.
---
Charlize Theron
North Country Another proverbial nominee all season, Theron has yet to beat out Witherspoon or Huffman for any real prizes. She's (very) unlikely to do so on Sunday. This is no Monster. I'm not a big fan of the film, and I'm not a big fan of the way that Theron's character was portrayed. Too Oscar-paint-by-numbers for me. Nonetheless, Theron finds herself nominated for the second time in three years.
Precursor Support
Wins: n/a
Nominations: SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, Globe, Satellite
Chances of Winning
5% - Not happening, either.
---
Reese Witherspoon
Walk the Line
Locked and loaded. The Reese Witherspoon juggernaut keeps rolling, and should will culminate in an Oscar win on Sunday. Her performance as June Carter Cash, while not the best of the year - in my opinion, has been taking everything. Everything. She's the southern belle, the movie star. She fits the Oscar-winning profile to a T; she's strong, she's supportive, she sings, she smiles. There's no way that she loses this on Sunday, no matter what some are predicting.
Precursor Support
Wins: Globe, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, OFCS, NSFC, FFC, KCFC, UFC, LVFC, SFFC, WAFC, NYFCC, BSFC, Satellite
Nominations: n/a (Yes, she's won everything that she's been up for.)
Chances of Winning
63% - It's hers.
---
CINEMASCAPE SAYS... Reese Witherspoon.
Well, yeah. Anyone picking against her needs to reassess their Oscarwatching status.
Who WILL Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Who SHOULD Win: Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Who Should/Shouldn't Be Here: Take out Huffman, Dench, and Theron. Sorry. Throw in Joan Allen for The Upside of Anger, and Laura Linney for The Squid and the Whale. Then, throw in the true best actress of the year, Naomi Watts in King Kong.
A Closer Look: Best Supporting Actor
Time to take a further examination of the supporting actor race. Expect more tomorrow, as we inch closer to Oscar night.
George ClooneySyrianaClooney couldn't go 0/3, ... could he? Screenplay and Director are out of the question now, and it's Giamatti vs. Clooney for supporting actor. Clooney's Globe win is big, so is the immaculate year that he's been having. On the other hand, one has to wonder; if Clooney's having such a big year, why doesn't he have more than a Globe and one minor critical accolade? Talk about tough to call. Sunday, everything will become very clear.
Precursor SupportWins: Globes, SLGFCNominations: BFCA, BAFTA, SAGChances of Winning28% - Clooney, Giamatti, Clooney, Giamatti, Clooney, Giamatti.
---
Matt Dillon
Crash The Comeback Kid has been the one constant nominee in this category throughout the season, but he's yet to breakthrough for a win. If the Academy wants to award
Crash somewhere among the major categories, or if they want to recognize the entire ensemble, they will award Matt Dillon on Sunday. I see it as a very real possibility, he's the dark horse. Still, I find it hard to fully commit to a Dillon prediction.
Precursor SupportWins: DFWFC
Nominations: SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, Globes, ISA, OFCS
Chances of Winning19% - It's possible. He's definitely the dark horse behind the two favorites.
---
Paul Giamatti
Cinderella Man"I'm sorry we fucked up last year." says the Academy. Giamatti's famous, unforgivable snub last year had everyone talking. His turn in 2003's
American Splendor was also criminally overlooked. This year, however, AMPAS finally recognized Paul Giamatti for his terrific, sprightly performance in
Cinderella Man. He's got a great shot at a (well-deserved) win, but it's a dead heat between him and Clooney. This will be a photo-finish.
Precursor SupportWins: SAG, BFCA, BSFC, SEFC, TFC
Nominations: Globes, OFCS
Chances of Winning28% - Giamatti, Clooney, Giamatti, Clooney, Giamatti, Clooney.
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Jake Gyllenhaal
Brokeback Mountain Gyllenhaal is really the wild-card in the category. His film leads in nominations, and if the Academy embraces
Brokeback with open arms, a Gyllenhaal win could be swept up in the process. That BAFTA win a couple of weeks ago certainly was interesting. However, I still feel that Gyllenhaal is fourth in the group. This is one wide-open category, though. You never know.
Precursor SupportWins: BAFTA, NBR, PFC
Nominations: SAG, BFCA, OFCS, Satellite
Chances of Winning15% - It could happen.
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William Hurt
A History of ViolenceSurprise, surprise. Were any of you as delighted as I to see William Hurt's name show up on nomination morning? His superb, albeit very short, performance was hailed by critics and cinephiles, but unfortunately forgotten about by most average moviegoers. Now, you have to think -- if Hurt could score so many #1's and #2's on nomination ballots, could he possibly pull off the upset of all upsets? Highly doubtful. However, if he does, I hope he utilizes that classic Philadelphia mobster accent of his.
Precursor SupportWins: LAFCA, NYFCC
Nominations: OFCS
Chances of Winning10% - Unlikely, and least likely of the nominees. Still, kudos to AMPAS for the nod.
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CINEMASCAPE SAYS... George Clooney.The toughest race to call. Clooney and Giamatti are neck-and-neck, with Dillon peering around the corner. I want Giamatti to win, I'll be pulling for him. However, I think it's going to be Clooney. I hope I'm wrong.
Who WILL Win: George Clooney,
SyrianaWho SHOULD Win: Paul Giamatti,
Cinderella ManWho Should/Shouldn't Be Here: Terrence Howard in
Crash, along with Craig T. Nelson in
The Family Stone were both nomination-worthy. Take out Gyllenhaal, and
maybe Dillon.
A Closer Look: Best Supporting Actress
The first of several breakdowns and examinations of the main categories, leading up to Sunday. First off, supporting actress. Later today, supporting actor.
Amy Adams
JunebugI'm so delighted that the Academy remembered, and recognized Amy Adams's work in one of the best films of the year,
Junebug. However, I would be elated, no -- I would be euphorically jubilant if AMPAS would deservingly hand Amy Adams some gold hardware on Sunday. Please, please, please.
Precursor SupportWins: BFCA, Gotham, Sundance, NSFC, SFFC, SEFC, VFC, COFC, FFC, WAFC, NYOFCNominations: SAG, ISA, Satellite, OFCSChances of Winning27% - The dark horse.
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Catherine Keener
Capote Some have raised their eyebrows at the inclusion of Catherine Keener in this category, citing that her turn was nothing more than a "throwaway" performance. However, it is Keener's performance that steadily holds the film in balance. Playing Truman Capote's moral compass, and sharing the screen with Philip Seymour Hoffman couldn't have been easy, but Keener was effective, and deserving of her nomination. In a stronger supporting year, of course, things may have been different.
Precursor SupportWins: BSFC, NYFC, LAFC, DFWFC, TFC
Nominations: SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, OFCS
Chances of Winning16% - Longshot. Her nomination is her award.
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Frances McDormand
North CountryFiller alert. This is, without a shred of doubt, the most head-scratching acting nomination for me this year. I mean, really?
This performance as
this character in
this film? However, I guess she
is Frances McDormand, and this role (and film) is just stuffed with over-the-top portions of baity goodness. The Academy took it -- hook, line, and sinker.
Precursor SupportWins: LVFC
Nominations: SAG, Globes, BAFTA, Satellite
Chances of Winning0% - Just, no.
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Rachel Weisz
The Constant Gardener Usually a SAG and a Globe will lock you up, however with the wide-open vibe around this category, you never know. Weisz easily holds onto the frontrunner status, and is favored to win by most. Nevertheless, you cannot forget about Amy Adams and Michelle Williams. Amy Adams, if enough people can see the film, can absolutely pull off an upset.
Precursor SupportWins: SAG, Globes, SLGFC, UFC, SDFC, ALFS
Nominations: BAFTA, BIFA, OFCS
Chances of Winning36% - Likely, but there's room for an upset.
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Michelle Williams
Brokeback MountainA sure contender in the category, Michelle Williams has been earning praise all season for her performance in
Brokeback Mountain. However, will she be outshined by her two male co-stars? Her fellow contenders in this category, Weisz and Adams, occupy much more screentime than Williams, which may definitely damage her Oscar hopes. Keep in mind though, the Academy loves their supportive wives, and a good scenery-chewing scene. If
Brokeback is received well enough, Williams may walk away with an Oscar on Sunday.
Precursor SupportWins: BFCA, PFC
Nominations: SAG, Globes, BAFTA, ISA, OFCS
Chances of Winning21% - Possible, but doubtful.
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CINEMASCAPE SAYS... Rachel Weisz.I'm going safe here. But really -- Watch. Out. For.
Amy.
Adams.
Who WILL Win: Rachel Weisz,
The Constant GardenerWho SHOULD Win: Amy Adams,
JunebugWho Should/Shouldn't Be Here: I'm a big fan of Taryn Manning's work in
Hustle & Flow. Her co-star Taraji P. Henson, or Maria Bello, or Thandie Newton would have stood as better choices over McDormand.
Brokeback Mountain
Capote 
Crash
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Munich
Paul Haggis
Ang Lee
Bennett Miller
Steven Spielberg
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Terrence Howard
Heath Ledger
Joaquin Phoenix
David Strathairn
Judi Dench
Felicity Huffman
Keira Knightley
Charlize Theron
Reese Witherspoon
George Clooney
Matt Dillon
Paul Giamatti
Jake Gyllenhaal
William Hurt
Amy Adams
Frances McDormand
Rachel Weisz
Michelle Williams
